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Robert McEachern: on 3/6/20 at 21:04pm UTC, wrote The standard way to pick, is to select the choice with the highest...



FQXi FORUM
April 5, 2020

ARTICLE: Outside the Box [back to article]
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Robert H McEachern wrote on Mar. 6, 2020 @ 21:04 GMT
The standard way to pick, is to select the choice with the highest expectation value. No contest here. The expectation value for Box-A is only $1000. Even if the predictor is only 50/50 correct/incorrect, Box-B will have an expectation value of $500,000. If the predictor has "near-perfect accuracy", then the expectation value of Box-B is nearly $1,000,000. So you can either be guaranteed to win a paltry $1000, or be "near perfect" sure to win a vastly greater sum. So, are you really going to totally squander a "near-perfect" opportunity to receive $1,000,000, in the ill-conceived hope of maybe getting a measly extra $1000? This brings to mind another TV game show - "Are you smarter than a 5th grader?" As the famous Monty Hall problem demonstrated, a lot of highly-educated people are not, when it comes to analyzing game shows - or reality.

Rob McEachern

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