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RECENT POSTS IN THIS TOPIC

Noah Isabella: on 9/23/20 at 13:30pm UTC, wrote You can either choose both Box A and B, or just Box B. But here's the...

Harry Wellington: on 8/19/20 at 0:29am UTC, wrote I am absolutely fascinated by the decision theory. It is of interest to...

Samuel Parsons: on 6/6/20 at 11:12am UTC, wrote Thanks! That sounds like what I really need help with ! I love this kind of...

Samuel Parsons: on 5/22/20 at 16:17pm UTC, wrote O also means a whole new universe in a box can be recreated a miniverse...

Samuel Parsons: on 5/22/20 at 16:15pm UTC, wrote Is it 127? It's always comes back here. Just saying also I'm trying to...

Robert McEachern: on 3/6/20 at 21:04pm UTC, wrote The standard way to pick, is to select the choice with the highest...

FQXi FORUM
November 29, 2022

ARTICLE: Outside the Box [back to article]

Robert H McEachern wrote on Mar. 6, 2020 @ 21:04 GMT
The standard way to pick, is to select the choice with the highest expectation value. No contest here. The expectation value for Box-A is only \$1000. Even if the predictor is only 50/50 correct/incorrect, Box-B will have an expectation value of \$500,000. If the predictor has "near-perfect accuracy", then the expectation value of Box-B is nearly \$1,000,000. So you can either be guaranteed to win a paltry \$1000, or be "near perfect" sure to win a vastly greater sum. So, are you really going to totally squander a "near-perfect" opportunity to receive \$1,000,000, in the ill-conceived hope of maybe getting a measly extra \$1000? This brings to mind another TV game show - "Are you smarter than a 5th grader?" As the famous Monty Hall problem demonstrated, a lot of highly-educated people are not, when it comes to analyzing game shows - or reality.

Rob McEachern

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Samuel Jason Parsons wrote on May. 22, 2020 @ 16:15 GMT
Is it 127? It's always comes back here. Just saying also I'm trying to figure this place out still. Where can I drop my constant rants questions philosophy visionary works and really cool new ideas? Like I got lots of work based in cosmology but also particles and things like graphene and I have theory of why magic angle works hint it's liken to light and bubbles and rainbows lol ok I'll say it electrons and really all particles with non zero mass shrink infinitely between layers and then re expand but if mechanism was scaled and one side smaller than other you could shrink or enlarge likend event horizons and zero velocity

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Samuel Jason Parsons wrote on May. 22, 2020 @ 16:17 GMT
O also means a whole new universe in a box can be recreated a miniverse just have 360 shrinking layers and 360 rexpanding layers

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Noah Isabella replied on Sep. 23, 2020 @ 13:30 GMT
You can either choose both Box A and B, or just Box B. But here's the catch: ... Noah Shutty have come to a startlingly different conclusion that re-instates the paradox. ... That's all fascinating stuff, but few of us will be in the situation of ... a box can be recreated a miniverse just have 360 shrinking layers

iso 45001 certification

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Samuel Jason Parsons wrote on Jun. 6, 2020 @ 11:12 GMT
Thanks! That sounds like what I really need help with ! I love this kind of work but I don't have the discipline formalities and vocabularies but most of all the paperwork... O hope that will help me. Tired of trying to help change the world with popsicle sticks and glue guns gonna end up getting radiation poisoning from lack of safety equipment lab access and resources. Lol thanks again for the follow up.

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Harry Wellington wrote on Aug. 19, 2020 @ 00:29 GMT
I am absolutely fascinated by the decision theory. It is of interest to philosophers and economists. It deals with how to behave rationally in various practical situations. A decision situation is one where the subject of an action (let us call it P) has a choice between different actions (say D1 and D2). P may, for example, consider which of the two horses to bet on in the approaching race.

What should be taken into account in a decision situation? The two basic features of any such situation are the value (usefulness), i.e. how much W is desired in a given action D, and the probability that if you do D, you actually get W.

In horse racing the matter is quite simple, because bettors usually have only one goal: to make money. Let's say that bookmakers bet 50:1 on horse 1 and 10:1 on horse 2, and you wonder which one to bet your ten dollars on. Of course, the potential value of betting on horse 1 is much greater than betting on horse 2: you have a chance to win \$500, not just 100.

But the probability that the horse you're going to bet on will win is equally important. Let's look at some examples. Let's assume that there are two horses in the race, horse 1 and horse 2. Suppose that you think that horse 1 has a 1% chance of winning, while the chance of winning a horse 2 is 99%. In that case you should bet on horse 2: although this way you can only win \$100, the chance of actually winning is huge. On the other hand, if you think that the chances of winning a horse 1 are 50%, then you should bet on that horse. No matter how you bet, the chances of winning are the same: 50%. However, you will win much more by betting on the winning horse 1 than on the winning horse 2.

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Harry Wellington from pozycjonowanie

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